Analisis risiko penarikan pipa HDPE-100 pada proyek instalasi perpipaan metode horizontal directional drilling (HDD

The rapid expansion of underground utility networks has increased the use of Horizontal Directional Drilling (HDD) for trenchless pipeline installation, especially with PE100 pipes due to their good mechanical strength and durability. However, many HDD projects still use theoretical tensile strength values from standards or catalogues instead of laboratory results. This can cause inaccurate pull force calculations and raise the risk of mechanical failure during pullback. Most polyethylene pipe standards do not require tensile strength testing of fused pipes, while ASTM F1962-22 gives detailed pull force calculation procedures but assumes that mechanical properties are already reliable. This creates a practical gap for HDD contractors when defining safe pull force limits. This study evaluates the pullback risk of HDPE‑100 pipes in HDD works by combining laboratory tensile testing with a risk management framework based on SNI ISO 31000:2018. Pipe specimens from commercial HDPE‑100 products are tested according to ISO 527‑1 and ISO 6259‑3 to obtain actual tensile strength values of fused pipes. These values are then used as inputs for pull force calculations following ASTM F1962-22. In parallel, risks are identified and assessed using expert questionnaires, project records, a risk matrix, and Monte Carlo simulation to quantify how parameter variability influences failure probability. The results indicate that using only theoretical tensile strength can underestimate failure probability, while incorporating laboratory-based tensile strength improves the reliability of allowable pull force estimates and strengthens technical risk mitigation.